Global INterindustry FORecasting System



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GINFORS is based on a series of closely-linked modules which are solved simultaneously. The bilateral trade model is the heart of the system. This guarantees consistent linkage of trade volumes and prices for 25 commodities and a service sector. Exports of one country have to be imports of another country and so at the global level the trade system is closed.
Within each country, the economies are modelled using either a macro model (MM) or input-output model (IOM). The difference is the sectoral coverage, which is missing from the macro model; where possible the IOM is used but due to data limitations this is restricted to 21 countries.
The IO models describe the production technology in the countries as reflected in the input structures. Energy-emission models (EEM) are based on energy balances of the International Energy Agency and are available for all countries and regions distinguished in the model. In the EEM energy demand and supply are consistently linked for 12 energy carriers to the economic driving forces that are explained in the economic part of the model. Carbon emissions result from the use of fossil fuels.
Material inputs have also been integrated into the modelling system. For all countries resource-use extraction in tons is explained for six categories. Their development is either driven by economic activity or energy demand for fossil fuels.

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Documentation for the end user:

Scientific documentation:

Giljum S, Behrens A, Hinterberger F, Lutz C, Meyer B. Modelling scenarios towards a sustainable use of natural resources in Europe. Environmental Science and Policy 2008; 11; 204-216;

Lutz C, Meyer B, Wolter M I. The global multisector/multicountry 3E-model GINFORS: A description of the model and a baseline forecast for global energy demand and CO2 emissions. International Journal of Global Environmental Issues 2009; (forthcoming);

Meyer B, Lutz C, Wolter M I. Global multisector/multicountry 3-E modelling: From COMPASS to GINFORS. Revista de Economia Mundial 2005; 13; 77-97;

Meyer B, Lutz C, Schnur P, Zika G. National economic policy simulations with global interdependencies. Economic Systems Research 2007; 19(1); 37-55